Home Thoughts from Dubai - a mix of the best knowledge in the world today
Tip when visiting/moving to Dubai:
For all you girls visitiing Dubai, THE place in town on Tuesday nights is the Westin – its Goddess night. So go join the other beautiful people.
Reflections from the week:
Where was Ronan O Gara ? Well I am sure the Lions coach, the man with a similar family name to my own, wondered why he left this Munster talent out of the team.
It made the difference between a win and a loss. But it is easy for my ‘armchair opinion’ to be expressed after the match was lost. Shame as now the Lions have a serious mountain to climb. If you forgive the pun. But lets light some candles before tomorrow’s game.
The unexpected death of Michael Jackson overnight warrants some comment. After all the money and effort employed to prolong his life and looks, the fact is that you cannot ‘cheat life’. And however strange he was or odious in some respects, he will remain a pop star who will be remembered for decades to come. As will his music. A black man in the Elvis category. Thriller is (51 million copies and 7 of its tracks went to No 1 – another record) still the biggest selling album of ALL time. Yes the 50 year old from Indiana will hopefully be remembered for the better things in his life.
Love, or some form of it, plays such a large role in our lives. Most of it remains below the public radar. Well at least until the newspapers get their teeth into a story. Here are just a few from this week. First a good friend of HT. Good old ‘Silly Berlusconi’ from our Italian desk.
He has just got his breath back from the visit of Libyan leader Gadaffi - with his army of big chested body guards – and the claimed ‘dalliance’ with an 18 year old model, when ‘suddenly’ another story breaks to spice up his reputation. This time he is alleged to have brought, and bought, a group of expensive Italian hookers around to his house. Wow Silly. Brave one. Your own home ?
But ‘our quick-thinking sex-maniac’ simply opted for the ‘clever’ defence of ‘I do NOT need to pay for women’.
Oh Ok. I guess that is conclusive proof of your innocence. You can see the journalists just packing up their bags and leaving you alone !!
You also to explain why Jacques Chirac (former French president) has told them that you ‘boasted’ to him of having ‘intimacy’ with many of these ‘professional girls’. Ouch. And I thought it was only women who ‘betrayed’ each other.
Another love story with a darker result was the death, by bullet, of a French man ( I was wondering why the French have been so ‘silent’ in all these sleazy epics. They are after all the Masters of ‘the Mistress’). Or to add some lipstick to the story, a billionaire.
The killer was his 10 year younger lover. Apparently he wanted her to return a $ 1 million gift he gave her.
He soon regretted THAT decision.
What is a girl to do in these ‘distressed’ circumstances ?
Well the one ‘our girl’ choose was to put a bullet in his head. From 6 inches. Ouch.
And then another one. Just in case.
Quickly followed by two more. To be surer, as the saying goes.
Well her claim of a ‘crime of passion’ (a hugely successful and much used French case) was rejected by a French jury and verdict of MURDER was delivered.
Here is some more ’lipstick’ on the case – the murderer was an ex-prostitute. The victim was strapped to a chair. Was wearing a latex bodysuit. And he called her a ‘whore’ just before the first bullet entered his skull. And he enjoyed ‘abuse’. Obviously she did not !! You think four years together would have alerted him to ‘this side of her’ !!
But thankfully these ‘little’ distractions did not deflect from the fact that a murder was committed.
Moving ever so gradually away from ‘love’ stories did you hear that the Wimbledon Organising Committee are about to introduce rules on ‘noisy women’ players.
Apparently these new ‘rules’ were considered necessary with the arrival onto the scene of the Portuguese teenager Michelle Larcher de Brito. Her 109 decibel ‘performance’ in Paris has shocked, or amused, many.
For those of you struggling to ‘audiolise’ how high that is, well just slightly below that of a jet taking off. So many other thoughts go across my mind. But I think I will just leave you to guess what they might be !!
A woman less noisy, as far as I know, is Oprah Winfrey. She celebrated her 55th (yes 55) birthday on Sunday. The ‘noisy’ part of her ‘bash’ was that she celebrated it in Barcelona …….. with 1,700 of her employees and families. And she is footing the entire bill. Three party-days in the city followed by a 10 day Med cruise. Cost ? Euro 5,000 per head.
Cheap on a per head basis. But a cool Euro 8.5 million. For a birthday that is not even a ‘big one’.
Another ‘big spender’ is our ‘old favourite’ Paris Hilton. She has won a fair bit of HT ‘airspace’ recently. Not that I have any fascination with the bimbo blonde (I am not really interested in being her ‘best friend’ in her Dubai version of her TV series) but she just puts her very pert nose everywhere. This week she claimed to be a role model for women.
How her brain editorially controlled that statement is beyond me. How could this self conceited air head put claim to a title like that. It has as much value as Mahmoud Ahmedinejad from Iran claiming to be a role model for members of the Knesset (the Jewish Parliament).
For those of you interested ‘her car’ in Dubai is a purple red Lamborghini.
Linked to Paris but on matters French, did you see the outrageous court ruling in relation to the contestants on a French reality TV programme. For those who may find some of the practices and customs of the Middle East strange, here is an alarm clock result for all Europeans.
Contestants in the French version of Temptation Island (you can bet that it is suitably ‘spiced up’ for a cultural audience that considers nudity as normal as drinking coffee) are to receive employment contracts, a basic salary of Euro 11,000 per month, overtime, holidays, pension rights and even damages for ‘wrongful’ dismissal. This should be interesting as the natural course of the show starts to eliminate some of those not wanted. Interesting that the French find themselves in the position of teaching the litigious Americans some ‘tricks’.
On the subject of reality TV how many ‘names’ can you remember from all the UK TV talent shows ? Difficult eh ? They tend to only last a year …………………… and then become disposable by Cowell and his gang of talent predators. Unlike the Promoters of these shows (estimated to be in excess of £900 million) there are only a very few of the ‘victims’ that actually become millionaires. Here are some for you. By far the most successful has been ……………………… yes Girls Aloud( Popstars – the Rivals) They have amassed personal fortunes in excess of £10 m. Others in the over £10 m category are Will Young (Pop Idol)and Leona Lewis (X Factor). After that the money really falls away rapidly. The late and beautiful Jade Goody (Big Brother) comes in number 4 with £7m and then Lemar (Fame Academy), Paul Potts (Britain’s Got Talent), Jane McDonald (The Cruise) and Mylenee Klass (Popstars) all on, or around, £3 million. I guess these ones are happy to be in the UK. As ‘an employee’ I suspect the salary would be a lot ‘lighter’.
Now to some matters local. The Dubai Metro service’s first official day for public use is now only 10 weeks away. An exciting moment for all of us in Dubai and for the many who will now have more freedom of movement across the Emirate. 59 kms long and linking the heart of ‘old Dubai’ to the Abu Dhabi border at Jebel Ali. And during peak times we will only have to wait 90 seconds for the next train. So no need to ‘push’ or fall into some of the other less mannerly Dubai practices.
And the excellent news is that the Dubai Government has been brilliant in the pricing of the service. Unlike the guys who priced the 4 kilometer Palm service at AED 2.50 (Euro 50 cents), the 59 km Dubai Metro will have a maximum price of AED 5.80 (if you use the electronic card) and a minimum price of just AED 1.80 (Euro 30 cents).
There is an interesting battle brewing in Dubai. Yes the Al Shuaa Investment Group – run by the Al Ghurair family – is being sued by the Dubai Government (or specifically Dubai Holdings). The $500 million at stake, fought between two extra powerful groups, makes the battle worth it.
Dubai’s position as a ‘tax alternative’ to the dwindling number of global ‘tax havens’ increases by the week. Particularly given the speed that President Obama (and German Government) are introducing anti-avoidance legislation and ‘closing’ previously popular ‘tax banks’.
Even Switzerland is ‘complying’ faster than most expected.
Dubai will by the end of next year have the largest retail space per capita in the world. The Emirate saw its position in the Global Retail Development Index (measuring retail investment attractiveness) improve by 16 slots over the past 12 months. It is now Number 4 – behind Russia, China and India. It also won the honour of being the country with the highest retail spend per capita – largely linked to its enormous tourist industry relative to the UAE population of just under 5 million.
You all know my strong belief that the ‘saving’ of the world is firmly linked to equity markets around the world. The stability, wealth creation and liquidity that we have all experienced over the past 3 months, is completely linked to the global equity bourses. We are now going into the ‘correction phase’ and being a hero is unwise. Better to take a holiday and enjoy it.
The fragility of the markets is best demonstrated by what has happened in the Russian market. Having fallen 81% in the 12 months to February, it then recovered 144% (yes 144%) in just 4 months. Over the past month it has given up 20% of this spectacular run – but is still up 80% from its January low. Such is the speed which God has given and chosen to give another ‘wake up’ call. So lets all just go away for the remainder of the Summer. Unless we have a 10% downward correction – which may be a buy opportunity.
The Dubai (DFM) also had an ugly week with a fall of 6%. Emaar, the heaviest component in the index, fell 7% - after having risen 100% over the past 3 months.
OK enough I have to go. See you next week.
Finally for all of us who thought of Filipino’s as small and not the ‘Mr Universe’ types, think again. Two young Filipino’s made a quick, and large, withdrawal from an ATM at a petrol station just south of Manila. The guys decided however not to use ‘their card’. Instead they took the ‘entire’ ATM. Yes they audaciously took the entire machine. The entire exercise took just two minutes. It took the police 10 minutes to arrest them. I am not surprised. It is difficult to put an ATM in the back of a Yaris !!!
Finally finally Kodak have taken one of its most famous and oldest product off the manufacturing line. Yes production of ‘Kodakcrome’ ceased on Opray’s 55th birthday. Without going into the technicalities, it was what most of us have used in ‘real cameras’ over the past 70 years.
Property corner:
For anybody who wants to have a totally safe ‘addition’ to his/her pension I have a Dubai commercial property transaction that has a fully let annual rental yield of 8% (with an upside to 11%) AND capital appreciation of up to 20%. It qualifies under all current UK and Irish Pension Rules and Legislation. It is also available for a ‘straight’ investor.
Dog Corner:
Unfortunately the Dog of the week trophy has, this week, to go to Nakheel. Again. Why are they going around bullying customers and suppliers. Are they not a ‘proxy’ for the Government of Dubai ?
And did people entering various relationships with them not view them as this ?
Fun corner:
It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea .
It is raining and the little town looks totally deserted.
It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.
Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one.
The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.
The Butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower.
The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel.
The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town’s prostitute that in these hard times, gave her “services” on credit.
The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.
The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything.
At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms and leaves town.
No one earned anything.
However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the United States Government is doing business.
One day God was looking down at Earth and saw all of the rascally behavior that was going on.
So he called one of His angels and sent the angel to Earth for a time. When he returned, he told God, ‘Yes, it is bad on Earth; 95% are misbehaving and only 5% are not.
God thought for a moment and said, ‘Maybe I had better send down a second angel to get another opinion.’ So God called another angel and sent him to Earth for a time.
When the angel returned he went to God and said, ‘Yes, it’s true. The Earth is in decline; 95% are misbehaving, but 5% are being good.’
God was not pleased. So He decided to e-mail the 5% that were good, because he wanted to encourage them, and give them a little something to help them keep going.
Do you know what the e-mail said?
Okay, I was just wondering. I didn’t get one either.
Several men are in the locker room of a golf club.
A cell phone on a bench close by begins to ring with a deafening and highly irritating Rap Tune.
Someone screams, “Turn that thing off before I throw it in the shower room!”
A guy rushes to the phone and answers it.
He engages the hands-free speaker-function and begins to talk.
Everyone else in the room stops to listen.
MAN: “Hello?”
WOMAN: “Honey, it’s me. Are you at the club?”
MAN: “Yes, I am.”
WOMAN: “I am at the mall now and found this beautiful leather coat. It’s only $1,000. Is it OK if I buy it?”
MAN: “Sure, go ahead if you like it that much.”
WOMAN: “I also stopped by the Mercedes dealership and saw the new models for next year. I saw one I really liked.”
MAN: “How much?”
WOMAN: “$60,000″
MAN: “OK, but for that price I want it with all the options.”
WOMAN: “Great! Oh, and one more thing… The house we wanted last year is back on the market. They’ve come down $10,000 and now they are asking $950,000. What do you think, should we make them an offer?”
MAN: “Absolutely. Go ahead and give them an offer, but just offer $940,000 so they will know we are serious buyers.”
WOMAN: “OK, Honey! Now you’re talking! I can’t wait to see you later! Look for me upstairs and don’t be long! I love you so much!”
MAN: “Bye, I love you, too.” The man hangs up.
The other men in the locker room are looking at him in astonishment.
Then the man smiles and asks: “Anyone know who this phone belongs to?”
While on the subject here are a few quick ‘marriage jokes’ – if that expression is not a contradiction !! Some are old ones.
1. Two times a week, we go to a nice restaurant, have a little beverage, good food and companionship. She goes on Tuesdays; I go on Fridays.
2. We also sleep in separate beds. Hers is in California and mine is in Texas.
3. I take my wife everywhere…but she keeps finding her way back.
4. I asked my wife where she wanted to go for our anniversary. “Somewhere I haven’t been in a long time!” she said. So I suggested the kitchen.
5. We always hold hands. If I let go, she shops.
6. She has an electric blender, electric toaster and electric bread maker. She said “There are too many gadgets and no place to sit down!” So I bought her an electric chair.
7. My wife told me the car wasn’t running well because there was water in the carburetor. I asked where the car was; she told me “In the lake.”
8. She got a mudpack and looked great for two days. Then the mud fell off.
9. She ran after the garbage truck, yelling “Am I too late for the garbage?” The driver said “No, jump in!”
10. Remember: Marriage is the number one cause of divorce.
11. I married Miss Right. I just didn’t know her first name was Always.
12. I haven’t spoken to my wife in 18 months. I don’t like to interrupt her.
13. The last fight was my fault though. My wife asked, “What’s on the TV?” I said “Dust!”
One day, when a seamstress was sewing while sitting close to a river, her thimble fell into the river.
When she cried out, the Lord appeared and asked, “My dear child, why are you crying?”
The seamstress replied that her thimble had fallen into the water and that she needed it to help her husband in making a living for their family.
The Lord dipped His hand into the water and pulled up a golden thimble set with pearls. “Is this your thimble?” the Lord asked.
The seamstress replied, “No.”
The Lord again dipped into the river. He held out a silver thimble ringed with sapphires. “Is this your thimble?” the Lord asked.
Again, the seamstress replied, “No.”
The Lord reached down again and came up with a simple leather thimble. “Is this your thimble?” the Lord asked.
The seamstress replied, “Yes.” The Lord was pleased with the woman’s honesty and gave her all three thimbles to keep, and the seamstress went home happy.
Some years later, the seamstress was walking with her husband along the riverbank, and her husband fell into the river and disappeared under the water.
When the seamstress cried out, the Lord again appeared and asked her, “Why are you crying?” “Oh Lord, my husband has fallen into the river!”
The Lord went down into the water and came up with George Clooney.
“Is this your husband?” the Lord asked. “Yes!” cried the seamstress.
The Lord was furious. “You lied! That is an untruth!”
The seamstress replied, “Oh, forgive me, my Lord. It is a misunderstanding. You see, if I had said ‘no’ to George Clooney, you would have come up with Brad Pitt. Then if I said ‘no’ to him, you would have come up with my husband. Had I then said ‘yes,’ you would have given me all three. Lord, I’m not in the best of health and would not be able to take care of all three husbands, so THAT’S why I said ‘yes’ to George Clooney.
And so the Lord let her keep him.
The moral of this story is: Whenever a woman lies, it’s for a good and honorable reason, and is always in the best interest of others. That’s our story, and we’re sticking to it.
Signed, All Us Women Here were my favourites from last weeks ‘put down’ expressions.
Yes because I am a bit short of ‘comedy’ this week.
3. How about never? Is never good for you?
4. I see you’ve set aside this special time to humiliate yourself in public.
8. I don’t work here. I’m a consultant.
9. It sounds like English, but I can’t understand a word you’re saying.
10. Ahhhh. I see the f**k-up fairy has visited us again.
11. I like you. You remind me of myself when I was young and stupid.
14. I’m already visualizing the duct tape over your mouth.
15. I will always cherish the initial misconceptions I had about you.
16. Thank you. We’re all refreshed and challenged by your unique point of view.
18. Any resemblance between your reality and mine are purely coincidental.
19. What am I? Flypaper for freaks?!
23. And your cry-baby whiny-a.r.s.e.d opinion would be?
24. Do I look like a fu**ing people person to you?
26. I started out with nothing and I still have most of it left.
27. Sarcasm is just one more service we offer.
28. If I throw a stick, will you leave?
29. Errors have been made. Others will be blamed.
30. Whatever kind of look you were aiming for, you missed.
31. Oh I get it. Like humour, but different………
37. How do I set a laser printer to stun?
39. I’ll try being nicer if you’ll try being more intelligent.
40. Wait a minute - I’m trying to imagine you with a personality.
42. I’d like to help you out, which way did you come in?
43. Did you eat an extra bowl of stupid this morning?
44. Why don’t you slip into something more comfortable? Like a coma.
46. I’m too busy, can I ignore you some other time?
48. Have a nice day, somewhere else.
49. You’re not yourself today, I noticed the improvement straight away.
51. Don’t believe everything you think.
52. Do you hear that? That’s the sound of no-one caring.
Currency corner:
I guess you are now starting to understand why I regularly explain the risks of currency predictions. While I still believe the US$ will recover some of its appeal, short term the ‘bears’ who believe the Chinese and Oil Nations will abandon their support for the Greenback. And that it will be joined as a ‘reserve currency’ by the Euro. Not in the next 5 years do I believe this is a reality. They also argue that a ‘credit status revision’ is imminent. AND that the American Government has borrowed too much to support ‘inefficiencies’ in its economic model. Well once again I don’t expect any credit downgrade and in relation to the borrowing story the US could repay the ENTIRE of what it put into the banking/financial system by just increasing the price of petrol by 50 cents per gallon. Yes THE LOT. And with many of these banks already wanting to repay the TARP money much of this government ‘borrowing’ should be taken out of the intellectual and emotional case against the Dollar
As for Sterling. Can ANYBODY give me the current valuation argument ? The economic news, with the possible exception of the bottoming in the housing market, is dire. And the true cost of the Governments ‘subsidy/support’ strategy has not come anywhere near the end. When this becomes clearer and the other economic woes (not to speak about the political mess) gather momentum I believe you will see a 5/7% fall in the currency’s value. The only saviour for it at the moment is the relative weaknesses of other economies – notably Euroland. But prepare yourself for the ‘snapback’. Sterling is still the MOST overvalued currency in the world.
Equity corner:
Ok we are now into the most dangerous cycle in any analysis of equity trading. Summer equals lower volumes. Lower volumes equals volatility. A near 30% rise in global equity indices over the past 9 weeks equals correction likely – not to old lows but a possible 10% correction to the downside. Most of the good economic news and the benefits of various government stimulus packages are now in the system or their benefits discounted. Governments cannot continue to provide the fiscal and monetary stimuli at the rate we have experienced over the past 6 months. Sovereign borrowings around the planet are breaking through all the ‘prudence points’. Continued weakness in tax revenues and social welfare outflows will give little relief over the next 12 months. So servicing existing borrowings is already proving challenging for most of them. Some will fall. And then we have inflation. And corporate earnings that may disappoint. And continued global economic contraction. Bank credit will remain restricted as the best banks struggle with wholesale/retail funding, capital rebuilding and a new era of regulation. Yes difficult times ahead. So let us be very careful. My stock pick this week ? I think the market will have a major correction. So avoid. Unless you want to ‘go short’ in which case I suggest one of the resource stocks.