Home Thoughts From Dubai

Tip when visiting/moving to Dubai:

There will be some big parties on the Palm Jumeirah at the end of November – try to be there for them.

Reflections from the week:

So most of my readers changed their clocks last weekend. The Middle East (well GCC countries) did not. And now there is a four hour time difference between Ireland and the UK. The positives ? I have an extra hour to get Home Thoughts to you this morning. The negatives ? Well when many of you are heading for home at 5 in the evening and feel like a chat with your favourite many in Dubai, I am now likely to be at a more ‘advanced stage of dining’. So just show some human kindness/awareness !!! But how many of you know why the clocks are changed at all. Very good. To save electricity. The US (which by the way changes it clocks at a different time due to an Act passed in 2005 but only implemented for the first time in 2007) for example estimates that it saves 600,000 barrels of oil a year from the ‘shifting’. Interesting though that Hawaii does not change its clocks. Nor do virtually all of Africa (exceptions Egypt, Morocco and Namibia) and most of Southern Asia.But apart from energy/electricity savings, the time-changes have proven to reduce crime and saves lives/reduces traffic accidents. Yeah somebody out there is paid to ensure that the politicians decision remains correct and fully supported. But how many readers remember that in the oil crisis of 1973 the US Congress adjusted the clocks by TWO hours. The results were a total success. So you may ask why not make it TWO hours every six months. Well in a word, Farmers. No, not the ‘family’, the people who put food on our tables, group.

Some more intellectual ‘trivia’ that may help you get through this cold (for most of you) Friday morning. Do you know what is considered to be the least stressful jobs in the UK ? Think. No, not a politician. Its being a Librarian. Followed by people who work in Museum workers. And the most stressful ? Again our elected brothers and sisters fail to win a slot in the top 10. Prison officers and police occupy numbers 1 and 2. And what about the And in a totally unrelated piece of trivia do you have any idea what the top professions of people who use computer dating sites (yes apparently somebody does collect such crap). Well don’t waste too much time guessing. Teachers, nurses, (desperate) housewives and computer professionals. Not is that not enough to turn you completely off computer dating !!!

But let’s move on or I will lose the benefit of the extra hour, just rambling on. We only have four days left before ‘we know who’ is going to control ‘our clocks’ for the next 5 years. Well US-side anyhow. Yes next Tuesday that fine group of people we all know as ‘Americans’ get a chance to put an ‘x’ on a ballot paper. Not so difficult. But do you know that 8% of Americans will find putting an ‘x’ in one of two boxes a ‘little too challenging’, and spoil their votes. Yes the Jerry Springer ‘family’, just seem to find some way around doing such a simple task. But then that’s why we love em. They make ‘uzz-awl’ look intelligent. And so another of my start-of-year predictions is about to ‘come home’. Yes Barack Obama looks to have an unassailable lead in the polls.

I just hope my other prediction does not. An assassination would just add further to world turmoil. So watch this space before Barack is inaugurated in January.

One man who should be assassinated is an Irish radio show host, who has a fan club bigger than Jerry Springer. Most with a somewhat higher IQ I have to add. But this Joe Duffy, who single handed triggered an Irish banking crisis, continues to inject, through his powerful afternoon time-slot on National radio, his ‘death serum’ through the veins of the already ‘thumped’ Irish public. However this week Mr Duffy did you all a favour by publicly assaulting an estate agency/property development business that has made an enormous amount of money out of selling ‘troubled’ property to a naive Irish public. While the company/these people have hidden behind a name change and the Directors now live in Euro 2.5 million villa’s on the upmarket Palm Jumeirah (from a more modest past in the South West of Ireland), ‘Grim Joe’ skilfully fuelled a procession of angry listeners who just wanted to do what some groups in America want to do to Barack Obama. In fairness the company CEO did, through a radio link up from the sunny beaches of Dubai, put up a fair defence. And I can support his claim that the delay in delivering the apartments in Sports City, is NOT his fault.

I don’t know about the Indian story other than to say that I have always warned readers that investing in India is like betting on your granny winning the men’s 100 meters in the 2012 Olympics. Its not going to happen. Making money in India requires many things. Being Indian is a starting mandatory. But getting back to Joe. His show did not quiet expose a more criminal event. All the property product that Larionovo (now known as Profile) launched over the past 5 years was enthusiastically assisted by one of Ireland’s national newspapers. Front page coverage (in the property section) with bold large-font headlines seducing you into believing that you must have a piece of these ‘investment certainties’. When one collects all these articles, written over the course of 4 years, one starts to realise this was a ONE MAN crusade. A journalist with the power to ‘own’ this valuable and powerful space. How ‘credentialed’ was/is he ? Should the Irish Independent not be ‘in the dock’ ? Did this man personally benefit from all this unconditional support he gave ? Well if ‘they’ don’t tell you, I may have to send Joe Duffy some ‘leads’.

You may recall that I was threatened by a certain gentleman from Dublin when I covered this story before. And unfortunately everything I said at the time has turned out to be true. I do hate being lectured to/threatened by Estate Agents/Developers. Its like receiving a lecture from Ken Dodd on tidiness. Like Joe Duffy I have been inundated this week with emails and telephone calls from worried Irish/British investors about the condition of their investments in Dubai/Abu Dhabi. As Depression infects large parts of our planet, they understandably challenged the belief that the oil rich Middle East could remain unaffected. My answer has been contained in many of my recent ‘Pig Corner’ statements. Yes it has been an awkward few weeks for property in the Region. Many investors have not been able to sell their properties in advance of further instalment payments falling due. This has added to the ‘volume’ on the market. Collapses in equity markets around the world has not helped. Even equity bourses in the Region have, justifiably, collapsed. And it is THIS linkage that I believe is important to where UAE property prices go next. If we can have the some stability in the equity markets of India, Russia, Iran, China and the Middle East, then I think we will see a resurrection of interest in Regional property markets. The number of companies setting up in Dubai and the number of work permits being sought remains very strong. With very little/nothing happening in the rest of the world, people and companies are migrating to where there is still some economic growth. And they will have to live somewhere. Even with the property stock that will be delivered in 2009, there is a shortage of residential and office accommodation in Dubai. The problem that I have been articulating is that prices had gone insane and there was/is too much rubbish being built. But from this ‘quiet time’ springs some absolute bargains. Have a look at my Property Corner below.

The world we currently live in is indeed very very strange. Again I don’t want to make this too ‘heavy a read’ ( I have lots of female readers !!!) but pricing for risk, as banks call it, or loan margins to you and me, have crossed an unrealistic price point. If indeed your bank will give you the money at all. But this ‘fear premium’ is best highlighted by the cost of buying insurance against the Emirate of Abu Dhabi defaulting on its borrowings (known as credit default swaps). The current pricing is 2.86%. This is REDICULOUS. Abu Dhabi has $1.1 billion of debt. At $ 60 oil it generates $160 million revenue per day. So 6 days production will eliminate its entire debt. Add to this that Abu Dhabi has $ 50 TRILLION of reserves and wealth and you start to see how stupid this insurance pricing is. Slowly the world will normalise. And sanity will return.

One final point. Yes Abu Dhabi WILL help Dubai if it gets into an ‘over borrowed’ position. Dubai Mall opens next Tuesday. Delayed by 5 days while some cranes ‘were removed’ !! Apparently it finally dawned on the Directors of Emaar (the Developer) that public safety should take priority over meeting the promised opening deadline. And so Dubai will, next Tuesday, ‘own’ the largest shopping mall in the world. And on November 26th Dubai will receive delivery of the QE2. Soon to be docked on the Burj side of the Palm Jumeirah, it will be the largest ‘floating hotel’ in the world. Four days earlier the official opening (the real party) of the Atlantis will have many world entertainers and celebrities making the trip to the Dubai sunshine. And we are promised a fireworks display that will challenge that of the Sydney Olympics. All visible from the balcony of our apartment. All visitors welcome. Just bring a nice ‘red’.

Before we move away from ‘floating things’ I see Sadam Husseins super yacht has been ‘repaired’ (it had been badly wounded by some American torpedo and missile practice). It is now on sale for just $35 million. What a shame. Twelve months ago there would have been many buyers for this fine palace. Maybe Abu Dhabi will buy it. As you would expect it is pure luxury. Every possible luxury. Except it does not have a gym. A rule of the ‘previous owner’. Which may explain his ‘pre-invasion’ waist line.

And on ‘waist lines’ Christina Aguilera was surprisingly permitted to complete her scantily clad act/concert on stage in Abu Dhabi. A sign of changing times within the Emirate ? I did not travel to see the concert. There are many bodies just as good on the Burj al Arab beach. And I can’t but this if you put a cardboard box around Christina you could bring her to the new Hamley’s store in the Dubai Mall, and somebody would mistake her for a large Cindy doll.

I was fascinated this week by an article in the Daily Mail. British police, in contrast to the high profile sex on the beach story from Dubai, are being told ‘turn a blind eye on some of the more extreme forms of public indecency’. Wow. ‘Dogging’ (whatever the hell that is) and ‘Cottaging’ (now you really got me) are to be ignored. Well if you don’t know what they are I guess that will be easy. And as for sex on the beach. Well yes you can now go-for-it. Good time of year for bringing in that law. Only the insane, or hormonally imbalanced, would consider having sex on a British beach in November.

In the same paper there was also coverage of the UK decision to scrap most of the speed camera’s that decorate the roads/streets of Britain. I started to wonder. I even looked at the date on the newspaper just to confirm that I had not skipped a few months and that I was suddenly at another April 1st. But know some ‘do-gooders’ believe the money spent on such camera’s would be better spent on ‘driver education programmes’. Wow, I wonder what Alice in Wonderland books these people read. There is NO chance of this example being followed in Dubai. The opposite is the case. Speeding fines will become an increasingly critical part of Dubai’s ability to meet interest payments – on its loans from Abu Dhabi !!

These more difficult financial times has caused Dubai to review many of its investment intentions. Some have ‘forced’ sanity as a by-product. The announcement that it is to withdraw from the Charlton Athletic Football Club bid, will probably disappoint fans at the club, but is a great decision for those of us in Dubai who believe that we will eventually have to pay some taxes to help release the Emirate from Western debt.

Finally did you see that the European Parliamentarians are attempting to introduce ‘strip search scanners’ into European airports. Now I will have to reflect where I sit on this subject. Maybe even a latent career as a Customs Officer would be appropriate. I certainly would consider it if they introduced such a system into Los Angeles airport. Can you imagine how many ‘dreams’ could be delivered !!! But then a friend of mine actually has glasses that apparently achieve the ‘same result’.

Finally finally a nice quote that was given to me this week. ‘I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.’ The author ? Well one Thomas Jefferson. In 1802

Property corner:

Well they say that within every cloud there is a silver lining. And so it happens. For months I have struggled to recommen anything to you in this Corner – except my Funds. And it had got that difficult. Every new project being launched at ever higher prices. A real inflating bubble. And so I remained silent. But now a complete change of heart. Some suggestions that I can give you without any feeling of caution or fear. In my view as certain an investment as I have had in ALL my years in Dubai. I give it to you without reservation totally comfortable with the fact that you will achieve profits in excess of 50% over the next 9 months.

Property prices in Palm Jebel Ali have got ‘slaughered’ over the past week. The reasons are fully explainable – 20% installment payments due today, accelerated payments from Nakheel and transfer fee’s. Many distressed sellers came to the market at the same time. Prices collapsed. When this ‘distress’ is out of the market, prices will bounce. And bounce meaningfully. These properties are currently being sold at BELOW AED 1,000 per sq ft. Just a complete anomoly and opportunity. This will NOT happen again in Dubai. I am going to put a small group/consortium together. I cannot stress how strongly I believe in this opportunity.

Pig Corner:

Some guys (property owners) in Dubai have just not ‘got it’. The market has CHANGED. The ‘prices of yesterday’ are finished. YOU are now going to be exposed as GREEDY and STUPID. So many greedy Indians and Locals. All not realising what is happening. So let them stick with this stupidity and let the rest of us take the current ‘market prices’. I am sorry but many of you will have property in the ‘wrong’ locations – and it does not matter what price concession you are prepared to make. You will NOT find a buyer. The streets are unfortunately full of rampant and full grunting PIGS. It is a shame. The changes in the financial and economic conditions in other parts of the world, are now having an affect on the UAE and Dubai property market. There are so many people/property owners who are going to find themselves in real financial stress as they attempt to meet instalment payments on unsellable property.

Fun corner:

An attractive blonde from Dublin arrived at the casino and bet twenty-thousand dollars on a single roll of the dice. ‘I hope you don’tmind, I feel much luckier when I’m ‘completely nude.’ With that, she stripped from the neck down, rolled the dice andyelled, ‘Come on, baby, Mama needs new clothes!’ As the dice came to a stop, she jumped up and down and squealed…’YES,YES, I WON, I WON!’ She hugged each of the dealers and then picked up her winnings and herclothes and quickly departed. The dealers stared at each otherdumbfounded. Finally, one of them asked, ‘What did she roll?’ The other answered, ‘I don’t know - I thought you were watching.’ MORAL OF THE STORY ~ Not all Irish are stupid.. Not all blondes are dumb, But all men are men

Paddy & Mick go to London to donate sperm. It was a disaster! Paddy missed the tube & Mick came on the bus!!

A Muslim was sitting next to Paddy on a plane. Paddy ordered a whiskey. The stewardess asked the Muslim if he’d like a drink. He replied in disgust ‘I’d rather be raped by a dozen whores than let liquor touch my lips!’ Paddy handed his drink back & said ‘Me too, I didn’t know we had a choice!’

Paddy calls Easyjet to book a flight. The operator asks ‘How many people are flying with you?’ Paddy replies ‘I don’t know! It’s your f***ing plane!!’

Paddy & Murphy are working on a building site. Paddy says to Murphy ‘I’m gonna have the day off, I’m gonna pretend I’m mad!’ He climbs up the rafters , hangs upside down & shouts ‘I’M A LIGHTBULB! I’M A LIGHTBULB!’ Murphy watches in amazement! The Foreman shouts ‘Paddy you’re mad, go home’ So he leaves the site. Murphy starts packing his kit up to leave as well. ‘Where the hell are you going?’ asks the Foreman. ‘I can’t work in the friggin dark! ‘ says Murphy.

Two Irish couples decided to swap partners for the night. After 3 hours of amazing sex Paddy says ‘I wonder how the girls are getting on’

Paddy takes his new wife to bed on their wedding night. She undresses & lies on the bed spread-eagled & says ‘You know what I want don’t you?’ ‘Yeah,’ says Paddy. ‘The whole friggin bed by the looks of it!’

Q. What’s a Catholic priest & a pint of Guinness got in common? A. black coat, white collar & you’ve got to watch your arse if you get a dodgy one!

Paddy the electrician got sacked from the U.S. prison service for not servicing the electric chair. He said in his professional opinion it was a death trap!

Paddy’s chat up lines…..

 1. Did ya fart? ‘Cos ya just blew me away!

2. Are your parents retarded? ‘Cos your special!

3. My love for you is like diarrhoea. I just can’t hold it in!

4. Is there a mirror in your knickers? ‘Cos I can see myself in them!

5. Your body reminds me of a spanner. Every time I think of you my nuts tighten up!

6. You might not be the best looking girl in here, but beauty is only a light switch away!

Paddy, the Irish boyfriend of the woman who’s head was found on Arbroath beach was asked to identify her. A detective held up the head to which point Paddy said ‘I don’t think that’s her, she wasn’t that tall!’

Paddy & his wife are lying in bed & the neighbour’s dog is barking like mad in the garden. Paddy says ‘To hell with this!’ & storms off. He comes back upstairs 5 mins later & his wife asks ‘What did you do?’ Paddy replies ‘I’ve put the dog in our garden, lets see how they like it!’

An Irishman is shagging a Jewish girl & says ‘You’re not very tight for a Jew!’ She says ‘Well you’re not very thick for a Paddy!’

Paddy is said to be shocked at finding out all his cows have Bluetongue. ‘Be Jeysus!’ he said, ‘I didn’t even know they had mobile phones!’

Mick & Paddy are reading head stones at a nearby cemetery. Mick say ‘Crikey! There’s a bloke here who was 152!’ Paddy says ‘What’s his name?’ Mick replies ‘Miles from London!’

An Irishman is rowing his boat in a field of hay. Paddy drives past & stops. He looks at the Irishman in the boat & shouts ‘Its thick c**ts like you that give us Irish a bad name! I’d come over there & kick the f**k out of you if I could swim!’

HOW DO YOU DECIDE WHO TO MARRY? (written by kids). Don’t you just LOVE kids.

(1) You got to find somebody who likes the same stuff. Like, if you like sports, she should like it that you like sports, and she should keep the chips and dip coming. - Alan, age 10

(2) No person really decides before they grow up who they’re going to marry. God decides it all way before, and you get to find out later who you’re stuck with. - Kristen, age 10

(3) WHAT IS THE RIGHT AGE TO GET MARRIED? …..

(a) Twenty-three is the best age because you know the person FOREVER by then. - Camille, age 10

(b) No age is good to get married at. You got to be a fool to get married. - Freddie, age 6 (very wise for his age)

HOW CAN A STRANGER TELL IF TWO PEOPLE ARE MARRIED?

(a) You might have to guess, based on whether they seem to be yelling at the same kids. - Derrick, age 8

WHAT DO YOU THINK YOUR MOM AND DAD HAVE IN COMMON?

(1) Both don’t want any more kids. - Lori, age 8

WHAT DO MOST PEOPLE DO ON A DATE?

(1) Dates are for having fun, and people should use them to get to know each other. Even boys have something to say if you listen long enough. - Lynnette, age 8 (isn’t she a treasure)

(2) On the first date, they just tell each other lies and that usually gets them interested enough to go for a second date. - Martin, age 10 (Who said boys do not have brains)

WHAT WOULD YOU DO ON A FIRST DATE THAT WAS TURNING SOUR?

(1) I’d run home and play dead. The next day I would call all the newspapers and make sure they wrote about me in all the dead columns. -Craig, age 9

WHEN IS IT OKAY TO KISS SOMEONE?

(1) When they’re rich. - Pam, age 7 (I could not have said it better myself)

(2) The law says you have to be eighteen, so I wouldn’t want to mess with that. - Curt, age 7 (Good Point) (3 )

The rule goes like this: If you kiss someone, then you should marry them and have kids with them. It’s the right thing to do. - Howard, age 8 (Who made the rule)

IS IT BETTER TO BE SINGLE OR MARRIED? It’s better for girls to be single but not for boys. Boys need someone to clean up after them. - Anita, age 9 (bless you child)

HOW WOULD THE WORLD BE DIFFERENT IF PEOPLE DIDN’T GET MARRIED?

(1 ) There sure would be a lot of kids to explain, wouldn’t there? - Kelvin, age just 8

# And the #1 Favourite is…….. HOW WOULD YOU MAKE A MARRIAGE WORK? (1 ) Tell your wife that she looks pretty, even if she looks like a truck. - Ricky, age 10 ( The boy already understands)

And two other short ones : A Sunday school teacher asked her children as they were on the way to church service, ‘And why is it necessary to be quiet in church?’ One bright little girl replied, ‘Because people are sleeping.’

A mother was preparing pancakes for her sons, Kevin 5, and Ryan 3. The boys began to argue over who would get the first pancake. Their mother saw the opportunity for a moral lesson. ‘If Jesus were sitting here, He would say, ‘Let my brother have the first pancake, I can wait.’ Kevin turned to his younger brother and said, ‘ Ryan , you be Jesus !’

Advice from a male psychiatrist…… 

Dear Roger,

I hope you can help me. The other day, I set off for work leaving my husband in the house watching the TV. I hadn’t driven more than a miledown the road when the engine conked out and the car shuddered to a halt. I walked back home to get my husband’s help. When I got home I couldn’t believe my eyes. He was in our bedroom with the neighbour’s daughter. I am 32, my husband is 34, and the neighbour’s daughter is 22. We have been married for ten years. When I confronted him, he broke down and admitted that they had been having an affair for the past six months. I told him to stop or I would leave him. He was made redundant six months ago and he says he has been feeling increasingly depressed and worthless. I love him very much, but ever sinceI gave him the ultimatum he has become increasingly distant. He won’t go to counselling and I’m afraid I can’t get through to him anymore. Can you please help?

Sincerely,

Sheila

Dear Sheila,

A car stalling after being driven a short distance can be caused by a variety of faults with the engine. Start by checking that there is no debris in the fuel line. If it is clear, check the vacuum pipes and hoses on the intake manifold and also check all grounding wires. If none of these approaches solves the problem, it could be that the fuel pump itself is faulty, causing low delivery pressure to the injectors. I hope this helps,

Yours sincerely

Roger

A female CNN journalist heard about a very old Jewish man who had been going to the Western Wall to pray, twice a day, every day, for a long, long time. So she went to check it out and as she arrived at the Western Wall, there he was, walking slowly up to the holy site. She watched him pray and after about 45 minutes, when he turned to leave, using a cane and moving very slowly, she approached him for an interview.’Pardon me sir, I’m Rebecca Smith from CNN. What is your name? ‘Morris Fishbien,’ he replied.’Sir, how long have you been coming to the Western Wall and praying?'’For about 60 years.'’60 years! That’s amazing! What do you pray for?’ ‘I pray for peace between the Christians, Jews and the Muslims. I pray for all the wars and all the hatred to stop. I pray for all our children to grow up safely as responsible adults, and to love their fellow man.’ ‘Thats truly superb. Fantastic. You are amazing. And tell me how do you feel after doing this for 60 years?’ ‘Like I’m talking to a fuckin’ wall.’

Currency corner:

What an amazing 10 days. NEVER in all my banking years have currencies been so volatile. If you had been asleep for the early part of the week and woke up this morning, you would be looking at rates that were little changed. But you would have missed the slaughtering of Sterling (courtesy of Alistair Darlings ‘recession story’) and enormous support for the US$. The $ only reversed some of these gains when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. But now that story is out of the way the $ has resumed its upward movement. Expect further strengthening over the next couple of weeks. But I do strongly believe we are coming to the end of the $ strength story. The only basis for it is that Euroland and the UK are in far worse condition than the US. Not something I think is fully true. And the extent to which it is, is already in current prices.

Equity corner:

Three positive days on global equity markets. What is happening ? A good week. But as I have been saying for some weeks, this is NOT a market to trade. Pick some stocks and put them away for a year. There is NO doubt that the world is going into much leaner times and this will have an impact on corporate earnings. What is happening at the moment, as we travel from financial to economic crisis, is that nobody quite knows the full forward earnings impacts. So it is safer to stay with companies who have strong balance sheets, high sustainable dividends and products that are needed even in recessionary times. While we had an excellent week over the past 7 days – all last weeks stocks were up a minimum of 5% - we should be cautious. I think the week ahead may just take back much of these wins. We need the volatility to be drained from the markets. 10 consecutive days where the Dow and FTSE close up or down by no more than 100 points, is the signal I am looking for. So this weeks tip. Sell and take last weeks profits. Unless you want to hold for my suggested 9/12 months.