Home Thoughts From Dubai - your passage to knowledge

Tip when visiting/moving to Dubai:

there is growing rumour of Developers in Dubai struggling and being unable to complete/start development commitments.

Reflections from the week:

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And one day the Lord decideth that these nice people should have some real wealth. They were a friendly personable group. A race that haddeth a good reputation with the other races of the world. Lots of affability. And so the Lord gaveth them a property boom. Eleven glorious years. And many of these humble people, could not believe this gift from the heavens. But they were grateful. Unfortunately as this wealth grew, the friendliness, honesty and charity of these people went into ‘roller-coaster’ decline. Infidelity, arrogance, midas-belief, greed, fearless levels of debt, abandonment of common-sense and the destruction of many Christian principles became the way of life. The Lord did not like what he saw. He decideth change was necessary. And so he tooketh away the wealth and gave these people a property-crash. The bubble needed bursting. With Soddom and Gommorah type precision, the Lord decided a lesson was appropriate. The people of this ‘be-gorrah-land’ were now to rebuild their place in the ‘hall of kindness and humanity’. And to help them on the path of contrition, the Lord decided that they shall haveth a new Leader. A Leader who was rich in the values of the past. A man who was in tune with normality. A man who was fearless of self-expression – even to the point of believing that expletives should be re-introduced as part of Parliamentary and everyday language.
Now for those of you with a weak bad-language tolerance level, can I suggest you get a strong cup of coffee before going any further. Or just move to Property Corner – at least that is free of any sewer language. You see I need to devote this edition to the new Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister to all you non-Irish) who has been caught with ‘his pants down’ (no, not literally. At least not in public) on a few occasions recently. The source of his embarrassment is his apparent lack of understanding of the technical capability of acoustics, public address and tannoy systems. Such is the Kindergarten level of his grasp of such things that he has been accidentally caught using the well known and used Irish word ‘Fuckin’ to express some aggravation with the lethargy or stupidity of people around him in Parliament/Diplomatic gatherings. While commonly used around the many of Irish social venues (usually pubs) this word does not have common usage or acceptance in business or parliamentary circles. Well not until NOW. The new Taoiseach, in his heroic efforts to bring back good Irish Values, has attracted attention, and it seems some admiration, with his liberal use of the word – whether accidentally or intentionally.
Now please do not dismiss the enormous effort of our/your new Leader to recapture some of that old personality and national identity. ‘Fu*kin’ is a wonderfully versatile word. It can express anger – as in ‘fu*kin waster’. Or joy – ‘fuc*in fantastic’. Or sarcasm – that’s ‘fu*kin great’. Or a statement on the weather  – ‘fuc*in hot’. Or a comment of the opposite sex – ‘fuc*in cracker’. Or even a marriage proposal – you are ‘fu*kin what ?’. A warning – stop ‘fu*kin around’. And as well as being an adjective it can also become a noun – ‘Fu*ker’. So you can see the versatility of the word. Now, Mr Brian Cowen,  get on with running the ‘Fuc*in’ country. Which in dire need of some corrective medication. By the way the new Prime Minister is from the County of Offaly. In Ireland men from this county are known as ‘Biffo’s’ – which coincidentally is an acronym for ‘Big Ignorant Fuc*er From Offaly’. How appropriate.
One little addendum/joke. ‘Snow White, Tom Thumb and Quasimodo were out drinking. Snow White says you know ‘I am the most beautiful girl in the world’. Tom Thumb says that is nothing ‘I am the smallest person in the world’. And Quasimodo proudly adds ‘ And I am the ugliest man on the planet’. But to confirm each characters claim, they agreed to visit the head office of the Guinness Book of Records the next day. Snow White was the first to go in. A few minutes later she came running out screaming with joy ‘its confirmed, I am indeed the most beautiful girl in the world’. Tom Thumb was next. Within minutes he was also emerging overjoyed from the library, proud that he was indeed ‘the smallest person in the world’. Finally it was Quasi’s turn. A couple of minutes later, he emerged from the room. Sadness written all over his face. What’s wrong asked his concerned friends. ‘Who the F**k is Brian Cowen ?’ asked the tearful Quasi.
Now lets get on with some real news. I mean half this ‘fu**in’ section has been wasted on some ugly ‘fu**er’ that has nothing to do with Dubai or the UAE – unless of course he can finally deliver the promised Irish Embassy in Abu Dhabi.
Dubai news of the week has been the announcement of two new Salik (road toll) gates from September. You may recall the outrage when the road toll system was introduced last Summer. What is being hailed as a traffic management success by Government Authorities is being condemned by inflation –traumatized residents as a cheap (well, expensive) revenue generating tool. And now two new ‘traps’. We fu**in told you!! The two new Salik points will really test the ingenuity of those drivers who have gradually carved ‘toll-avoiding’ routes over the past 12 months. One will be located on the ‘other’ major bridge that crosses the Creek and the other at Safa Park on the Sheikh Zayed Road. That will be a real difficult one to avoid and push so much traffic onto Al Wasl and Jumeirah Beach Road. Remember my warning last year. As you push more traffic onto these ‘subsidiary’ roads, the chances of pedestrian accidents increase. Already three people have lost their lives (although difficult to link) from aggressive drivers avoiding the existing Salik gates.
In a world plagued by rising prices and environmentally damaging habits, it is nice to see the airline industry deciding to cease the practice of issuing ‘paper-tickets’ to travelers. While motivated by the need to reduce operating costs – estimated savings of $3 billion (yes THAT much) each year – the switch to exclusively electronic ticketing from next week, will also result in 50,000 trees being ‘saved’ annually. I presume that assumption is only valid if passengers don’t print their electronic ticket from the computer confirmation.
Well this week there is growing rumour that one of Dubai’s leading Developers is in financial trouble. Not for the first time ‘this Company’, is the focus of attention. Indeed Home Thoughts has warned readers many times. Even if the current rumour proves to be wide of the reality, it will only be a matter of time. Another classic example of uncontrolled and reckless over-trading. Ask any ‘fuc*er’ in Ireland what that is about. But watch this space. A real fu*kin mess.
And on that subject, what do you think of Irelands’ Eurovision Song Contest entry. A turkey. No, not the SONG. The CONTESTANT. Yes a TURKEY. What has happened MY country. For a country that has such a proud history of success in the competition (it has won the most times), how could the Irish nation make such a dumb and embarrassing choice. Yes I know I could have used THAT ‘F’ word in this sentence but I am getting tired of its use. And I am not a Prime Minister. But it is a reflection as to how far the intelligence, and common-sense, of the Irish Nation has been corrupted. A TURKEY. Well the 250 million people in Europe disagreed with the Irish verdict. The entry did not even make it to the final night. It was eliminated well before the ‘song’ was allowed to terrorise the good citizens of Europe.
Justice ? Well one sure injustice was the decision to grant pay awards totaling Stg 120 million to the directors of what is in my the worlds most incompetent bank. Six of them. Sir Mark Moody-Stewart, chairing the remuneration committee seems to be on some new mind altering drug. How else could you explain the proposal to reward this already overpaid and over-weight collection of pseudo-intellectuals, with such mind-blowing generosity. HSBC customers should revolt. F***ers.
I have to mention a couple of friends (one new) this week. At the Dubai Rose competition last Friday evening (well done Emma from Limerick), Carmel (George’s Belle and a fellow competition judge), I can feel her blushing, alerted the catering staff to the smell of something burning in the dining hall. Each ‘warning’ was greeted, by our very pleasant and smiling Indian waiter with  ‘Yis Mam, n wil u bee drinkin rid or whit ween’? The sense of ‘urgency’ was lost somewhere in his command of English. Thankfully Carmel’s sense of smell also requires some improving !! The other ‘incident’ involved me having to head for home early last evening. I was enjoying the start of the weekend with a few drinks, with friends. Then two of the girls in the company suggested that one of my friends in the group looked like Matt Damon. Matt ‘fu**in’ Damon. Through the eyes God gave me, he looks more like ‘Jaws’ from a James Bond movie. My obvious lack of ‘vision’ caused me to believe it was time to head for Marina Terrace. Maybe it is just as well. At least I have had more time for all of YOU this morning. Matt Damon. How offended he would be if he had been present.
The beautiful Emma Dwane will represent Dubai at this years Rose of Tralee Competition. The gorgeous 22 year old Limerick belle (with her Mona Lisa smile) won a tightly contested battle to win the title. Well done Emma. We are all proud of you. Start to compose a vote-winning poem for the August/September completion. We all believe you will win. And to the other contestants hard luck on this occasion. It was a very competitive year.
The Euro is TEN years old on Sunday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY.  As the second most traded currency in the world, I think ‘success’ is a fair description. But some countries Portugal, Italy,  Greece and Spain are all struggling. PIGS as they are affectionally known, have some seen their economies, after some initial success,  falter from one crisis to another. Greece for example has borrowings equivalent to 95% (yes 95%) of GDP. It has a 14% balance of payments deficit.  Not just outside the ‘operating rules’ but a planet away. Will we ever see some of these countries being ‘dropped’ ? Wonder how Ireland escaped ? Probably because it is difficult to create a word with another ‘I’, and Italy was more deserving of the ‘award’ on this occasion.
Just one quick ‘sequel’ to last weeks rant. Remember that EVERYBODY who recommends property sales or purchases in Dubai/Abu Dhabi is on the take. Every Agent. That is their life. They are here to lie and take your money. There is something in the oxygen in Dubai/Abu Dhabi that corrupts the most honest head .I don’t do many personal advertisements but I have been in the risk assessment business all my business life.
Have you ever wondered about the scale-capability of ‘scorned’ when you hear the statement ‘a woman scorned’ ? Well the Chief Executive of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank will soon be able to write a book on the subject. He is currently fighting an Interpol arrest order. His offence ? Well his ex-wife is not happy with the dismissal of her appeal against the March 2007 divorce. So now she has chosen to ‘partner’ with the Press (and Interpol) in an attempt to embarrass the Chief Executive of one of the Regions most powerful banks, into submission. But I think the 60 year old (you see I told you my banking days may not yet be over !!) American Chief has the necessary weaponry to fight such ‘scorn’.
One apparent contradiction seems to be about to enter the Dubai property architecture. As you will be aware there has been a Rent Committee in existence for the past year. It has had mixed success in its attempt to protect tenants. But now the Government have decided to create a Rent Index – which will benchmark rents for particular areas of Dubai. This would appear to have the capability to dissolve the rent cap handcuffs that previously controlled the Landlords.
In an effort to show a level of support and brotherhood with the West, the UAE has made a decision to increase its daily oil output. While not directly responsible for this weeks fall in the price of the commodity, when added to last weeks Saudi decision and the belief by some other States that high oil prices are not good over the long term, it is a quality decision.
And it seems there is a growing appreciation on both sides of the world as to the challenges of ‘the other’. The US Treasury this week submitted a report to Congress on the need to let Middle Eastern States engage in a level of ‘currency reform’. Yes. Maybe I will win my ‘certainty of 2008’ – an appreciation of the Dirham against the US$. But even if it is not this year, it will be 2009. So stay with my plan. And if you can borrow the US currency against UAE assets, do so.
Finally be careful of the growth in projects in Ajman. These projects will only yield profits to the Emirate and first round Investors. There will be NO profit achieved if you do not fall into one of these categories. This is the Cavan (for the Irish), Preston (for the English), Dundee (for you Scots), Billabong (for you Aussies) etc of the UAE. Nice places but not where there will be mass employment or business. It will also suffer from infrastructure and entertainment deficiency.
Finally finally in juggernaut fashion the UAE’s objective of improving economic ties with important overseas partners continued this week with the visit of King Juan Carlos of Spain to Emirates Palace in Abu Dhabi. He was received by Sheikh Khalifa. Spain is the only major country in Europe with very little economic ties in the Region. You can expect a serious reversal of this ‘error’ in the months/years ahead.
Have a F****n great weekend.

Property corner:

The current state of frenzy that seems to have infected the Region makes tipping ‘good-buys’ so much more difficult. I am seriously of the view that a major property correction in the Region is closer. Maybe 18 months away but ‘a certainty’. You accordingly need to balance your investment portfolios to protect against this possible outcome.  While the wealth and cash liquidity of the UAE will probably ‘buy’ a longer reprieve than most text books would tutor, you can be certain the inevitable will eventually happen. You do however have 12/15 months (unless you are in badly located apartments – in which case you have to the end of this year) to make money beyond what it will cost you to borrow.
While I remain the most ardent fan of the Palm Islands (where there is still 20% + of 9 month upside) – but I guess you are bored by this – I think Dubai Marina apartments have recently got overlooked. With Dubai/Abu Dhabi new launch prices hitting AED 2,500 and above, you would have to believe that Dubai Marina (directly on the water only) prices in the AED 1,400 to AED 1,600 per sq ft (adjusted for view and floor) look excellent value.
But then the market is full of speculators who prefer to put a 10% deposit on the table, in the hope of selling the property on at a 10% premium – thus giving a 100% return on invested capital. Well this investment model will soon be doomed.

What to avoid:

During the week I had time to reflect on what this Corner means. And upon reflection ‘Dog’ does not quite make the point. They are loyal, (mostly) friendly and (mostly) attractive animals. This would flatter many of the ‘candidates’ that I have written about over the past three years. So from this week we will change this title to ‘Pig Corner’. I know some of you will immediately scream ‘Bambi’ or ‘Porkey’. But these ugly, smelly, dirty animals are a better description of what I wish to portray in this section.
So this weeks PIG goes to ALL new Dubai/Abu Dhabi projects above AED 2,000 per sq ft. We are now at a point where EVERYBODY is participating in the ‘10% down and flick’ investment model. And I mean EVERYBODY. Even taxi’s. And we all know what that means. So please be more careful than ever. Even seasoned Investors have got themselves burnt. At the recent Abu Dhabi a very well investment- experienced group of Russians got caught up in the buying frenzy and went home with a lot of well over-priced Al Dana properties. Prices AED 3,500 per sq ft. There are NO short term exits from this. And I think the Abu Dhabi owned Aldar have also learnt a lesson. There IS a price ceiling where it is wise not to go. Very few of the units launched were sold. Moscow had the nose-bleed.

Fun corner:

John was a salesman’s delight when it came to any kind of unusual gimmick. His wife Marsha had long ago given up trying to get him to change. One day, John came home with another one of his unusual purchases.

It was a robot that John claimed was actually a lie detector.It was just about 5:30that afternoon when Tommy, their 11 year old son, returned home from school. Tommy was over 2 hours late.
‘Where have you been? Why are you over 2 hours late getting home?’, they  asked.
‘Several of us went to the library to work on an extra credit project’ said Tommy.
The Robot then walked around the table and slapped Tommy, knocking him  completely out of his chair.
‘Son, this robot is a lie detector, now tell us  where you went after school.’
‘We went to Bobby’s house and watched a movie.’
‘What did you watch?’ asked Marsha.
‘’The Ten Commandments.’ answered Tommy.
The Robot went around to Tommy and once again slapped him, knocking him off his chair.
With lip quivering, Tommy got up, sat down and said,
‘I am sorry I lied. We really watched a tape called Sex Queen.’
‘I’m ashamed of you Son,’ said John. ‘When I was your age, I never lied to my parents.’
The robot then walked around to John and delivered a roundhouse right that nearly knocked him out of his chair.
Marsha was bent double laughing, almost in tears. Boy, did you ever ask for that one! And you can’t be too mad with Tommy. After all, He is your son!’
The Robot immediately walked around to Marsha, and slapped her three times.
Lets have a shot at some bankers.
A guy walks into a bank and says to the teller at the window, “I want to open a fuckin’ checking account”
To which the lady replied, “I beg your pardon, what did you say?”
“Listen up dammit, I said I want to open a fuckin’ checking account right now.”
“Sir, I’m sorry but we do not tolerate that kind of language in this bank!”
The teller left the window and went over to the bank manager and told him about her situation. They both returned and the manager asked, “What seems to be the problem here?”
“There’s no damn problem,” the man said, “I just won 50 million in the lottery and I want to open a fuckin’ checking account in this damn bank!”
“I see sir,” the manager responds, “and is this bitch giving you a hard time?”
Two women were walking through the woods when a frog called out to them and said: “Help me, ladies! I am a stockbroker who, through an evil witch’s curse, has been transformed into a frog. If one of you will kiss me, I’ll be returned to my former state!”
One woman took out her purse, grabbed the frog, and stuffed it inside her handbag. The other woman, aghast, screamed, “Didn’t you hear him? If you kiss him, he’ll turn into a stockbroker!”
The second woman replied, “Sure, but these days a talking frog is worth more than a stockbroker!”
And then there is the stockbrokers creed : A man is a client until proven broke
A new manager spends a week at his new office with the manager he is replacing. On the last day the departing manager tells him, “I have left three numbered envelopes in the desk drawer. Open an envelope if you encounter a crisis you can’t solve.”
Three months down the track there is a major drama, everything goes wrong - the usual stuff - and the manager feels very threatened by it all. He remembers the parting words of his predecessor and opens the first envelope. The message inside says “Blame your predecessor!” He does this and gets off the hook.
About half a year later, the company is experiencing a dip in sales, combined with serious product problems. The manager quickly opens the second envelope. The message read, “Reorganize!” This he does, and the company quickly rebounds.
Three months later, at his next crisis, he opens the third envelope. The message inside says “Prepare three envelopes”.
A man goes into a pet shop to buy a parrot. The shop owner points to three identical looking parrots on a perch and says, “the parrot on the left costs 500 dollars”.
“Why does the parrot cost so much,” asks the man.
The shop owner says, “well, the parrot knows how to use a computer”.
The man then asks about the next parrot to be told that this one costs 1,000 dollars because it can do everything the other parrot can do plus it knows how to use the UNIX operating system.
Naturally, the increasingly startled man asks about the third parrot to be told that it costs 2,000 dollars. Needless to say this begs the question, “What can it do?”
To which the shop owner replies, “to be honest I have never seen it do a single thing, but the other two call him boss!”
And another lawyer/judge one, since they proved so popular
At the height of a political corruption trial, the prosecuting attorney attacked a witness. “Isn’t it true,” he bellowed, “that you accepted five thousand dollars to compromise this case?”
The witness stared out the window as though he hadn’t hear the question.
“Isn’t it true that you accepted five thousand dollars to compromise this case?” the lawyer repeated.
The witness still did not respond.
Finally, the judge leaned over and said, “Sir, please answer the question.”
“Oh,” the startled witness said, “I thought he was talking to you.”
Men Are Just Happier People
NICKNAMES
If Emma, Kate and Sarah go out for lunch, they will call each other Emma, Kate and Sarah.
If Mike, Dave and John go out, they will affectionately refer to each other as Fat Boy, Godzilla and Four-eyes.
EATING OUT
When the bill arrives, Mike, Dave and John will each throw in £20, even though it’s only for £32.50.
None of them will have anything smaller and none will actually admit they want change back.
When the girls get their bill, out come the pocket calculators.
MONEY
A man will pay £2 for a £1 item he needs.
A woman will pay £1 for a £2 item that she doesn’t need but it’s on sale.
BATHROOMS
A man has six items in his bathroom: toothbrush and toothpaste, shaving cream, razor, a bar of soap, and a towel from M&S.
The average number of items in the typical woman’s bathroom is 337.
A man would not be able to identify more than 20 of these items.
ARGUMENTS
A woman has the last word in any argument.
Anything a man says after that is the beginning of a new argument.

FUTURE
A woman worries about the future until she gets a husband.
A man never worries about the future until he gets a wife.
SUCCESS
A successful man is one who makes more money than his wife can spend.
A successful woman is one who can find such a man.
MARRIAGE
A woman marries a man expecting he will change, but he doesn’t.
A man marries a woman expecting that she won’t change, but she does.
DRESSING UP
A woman will dress up to go shopping, water the plants, empty the bins, answer the phone, read a book, and get the post.
A man will dress up for weddings and funerals.
NATURAL
Men wake up as good-looking as they went to bed.
Women somehow deteriorate during the night.
OFFSPRING
Ah, children. A woman knows all about her children. She knows about dentist appointments and romances, best friends, favourite foods, secret fears and hopes and dreams.
A man is vaguely aware of some short people living in the house.
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY
A married man should forget his mistakes. There’s no use in two people remembering the same thing.

Currency corner:

A week that looked it was going to register as one of the most boring of the year, suddenly sprung to life yesterday. The $ went on a recovery run against the Euro – despite better than expected unemployment data from Germany. We did call the ‘top’ (really the bottom) of the US$ some weeks ago. . An upward revision of US GDP data did help the beleaguered currency. Even Sterling had a less asthmatic week
So where to from here ? Well very difficult to call. I am still a $ bull. The basis ? Well just that there is so much negative news in the US currency, it is hard to visualize new news that would bring new weakness. Euroland has the opposite complexion. There has been virtually no bad news – until the retail sales numbers from Germany earlier this morning. Euroland is in greater trouble than the market thinks. The worlds largest exporter (Germany) is suffering from the relative strength of the Euro, while its European ‘sisters’ are all struggling to cope with domestic disasters. 

Equity corner:

 I know that my RBS tip is worthy of ‘Dog Corner’ (now to be ‘Pig Corner’) but please remember these are exceptionally unique times for the stock. The Company can now concentrate on running its business. It has the $24 billion it intended raising, ‘in the bank’. It does not have to worry about ‘managing’ the share price. That was what was needed BEFORE the rights announcement. The Hedge Funds are having a ‘birthday period’. We do not know how many investors will take up their rights. This result will probably give the short term direction of the Company’s share price. How much ‘overhang’ will there be ? If little, then the price will accelerate. If a lot you can expect a period of ‘softness’. But ultimately the Company will be judged on its trading performance. And a p/e of 6 with a yield of 8% (adjusted) leaves a lot of room for share price improvement – no matter how much future revenues have been damaged by the last 9 months of credit turmoil.

One Response to “Home Thoughts From Dubai - your passage to knowledge”

  1. MAGGIE Says:

    Am still reading - put biggest smile on face for a long time and biggest belly laugh - long overdue for me. BIG THANKS

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